market pulse
January 9, 2019
Monthly Newsletter – January 2019

“Strength is defeated by strategy.” – Philippine Proverb

Clues from Recent Asset Classes’ Behavior
Macro: Weak Economic Outlook…Nations to Give Up on Fiscal Discipline
Oil: Awaiting Evidence from OPEC
MENA: A Review of Saudi Arabia’s 2019 Budget

DOWNLOAD THE NEWSLETTER
January 9, 2019
Fixed Income Weekly January 7, 2019

Market Update
2018 is behind us and a new journey is upon us. Most of 2018’s agendas should carry on with us during 2019. Politics should play a vital role in 2019, whereby investors will brace for the trade war rhetoric, the U.S. and EU internal politics, and the upcoming elections in emerging markets. Investors should also navigate through the tightening financial conditions and the heightened volatility in global financial markets. The beginning of 2019 is undoubtedly different than the start of 2018, whereby we kicked off 2018 with positive vibes and the cryptocurrency euphoria. We, however, hope that the end of 2019 would be much better than the end of 2018. Happy holidays to our investors and we wish you a great year ahead. Nevertheless, developed sovereign yields witnessed a severe swing during last week on the back of rising volatility and weak macro data. Yields, however, gained some traction on strong U.S. jobs data as well as dovish Powell. The U.S. 10 year yield started the week lower and continued its downward trend throughout the week. Interestingly, the front end of the curve, at some point, dropped below the FED’s official rate (2.25-2.50%), and it remains inverted. Germany and Japan’s government 10-year yield revisited 2017-lows. Nonetheless, the U.S., Germany and Japan’s 10-year yields closed the week lower by 5bps, 3bps, and 4bps, at 2.66%, 0.2%, and -0.04%, respectively.

DOWNLOAD THE NEWSLETTER
January 9, 2019
Monthly Jordan Economic Monitor – December 2018

Jordanian Market Updates:

  • GDP growth accelerates to 2.1% in Q2 2018, up from 1.9% in Q1
  • Net public debt soars to 90.4% of GDP as of October
  • Exports to Iraq are expected to increase following recent decisions by the Iraqi Government
  • Loans to deposits ratio continues to break fresh highs amid weak growth in JOD deposits
  • Tourism receipts to improve amid regional stability and improved economic conditions in the GCC
DOWNLOAD THE NEWSLETTER
December 6, 2018
Monthly Newsletter – December 2018

“No man was ever wise by chance.” – Seneca

Clues from Recent Asset Classes’ Behavior
Macro: Weak Economic Outlook
Oil: Would the OPEC Meeting Deliver a Bullish Sentiment?
MENA: Few Words on UAE and Saudi Arabia

DOWNLOAD THE NEWSLETTER
November 13, 2018
Fixed Income Weekly November 12, 2018

Market Update
During last week, developed sovereign yields started off stable to higher in anticipation of the U.S. midterm elections as well as the FED meeting. Afterwards, yields moved slightly higher after the FED’s meeting and strong PPI data. Yields, however, closed the week lower on rising political fears in the EU. The U.S. and Germany’s 10-year yields closed the week lower by 3bps, at 2.18% and 0.40%, respectively. Meanwhile, Japan’s 10-year yield closed the week flat, at 0.12%.

DOWNLOAD THE NEWSLETTER
November 10, 2018
Monthly Newsletter – November 2018

“An investment in knowledge pays the best interest.” – Benjamin Franklin

Clues from Recent Asset Classes’ Behavior
Macro: Softness across the Board
Oil: Bulls and Bears in a Tug of War
MENA: Potential Geopolitical Easiness in the GCC

DOWNLOAD THE NEWSLETTER
November 6, 2018
Fixed Income Weekly November 4, 2018

Market Update
Easing political tensions and upbeat economic data paved the way for developed sovereign yields to substantially move higher during last week. The U.S. and Germany’s 10 year yields kicked off the week stable to higher, then yields kept marching higher throughout the week on the U.S.-China trade talks, EU inflation data, as well as strong U.S. employment data, closing the week higher by 12bps, at 3.22% and 0.45%, respectively. Japan’s 10 year yield closed the week a bit higher at 0.12%.

DOWNLOAD THE NEWSLETTER
October 22, 2018
Fixed Income Weekly October 22, 2018

Market Update
During last week, the U.S. 10 year yield moved higher on hawkish FED minutes of meeting, increasing U.S. budget deficit, and strong job numbers, however, gains were capped by rising political fears and increasing volatility in global financial markets. The U.S. 10 year yield opened the week stable in anticipation of the FED minutes of meeting. On Tuesday, the 10 year yield jumped by 4bps as the FED reaffirmed gradual hiking of rates. Afterwards, the 10 year yield fluctuated to close the week higher by 4bps, at 3.19%. Germany’s 10 year yield diverted from the U.S. 10 year yield, as the German yields drifted lower on Italy’s issues, whereby, the 10 year yield closed the week lower by 5bps, at 0.45%. Japan’s 10 year yield closed the week flat as a pancake, at 0.14%.

DOWNLOAD THE NEWSLETTER
October 16, 2018
Fixed Income Weekly October 15, 2018

Market Update
The massive sell-off in global financial markets has forced developed sovereign yields to drop during last week as investors rushed into safe haven investments. The bloodbath started in equities then it quickly spilled into other asset classes. In the fixed income space, the pain was most pronounced in the high yield segment as investors pulled more than USD6 billion from junk bonds in the past week, largest outflow since February. Nevertheless, the U.S. 10 year yield kicked off the week higher by touching the highest point this year, at 3.25%, then it quickly lost traction as the sell-off in financial markets intensified. On Friday, the 10 year yield moved slightly higher on receding market risks. Nonetheless, the U.S. and Germany’s 10 year yields closed the week lower by around 7bps, at 2.16% and 0.49%, respectively. Japan’s 10 year yield closed the week stable at 0.14%.

DOWNLOAD THE NEWSLETTER
October 3, 2018
Fixed Income Weekly October 1, 2018

Market Update
Long dated developed sovereign yields traded in a wide range during last week on a dovish FOMC, rising political fears and hawkish Draghi. The U.S. and Germany’s 10 yields kicked off the week higher in anticipation of the FED meeting as well as hawkish comments from Draghi. Afterwards, yields reversed course and moved lower in the wake of a soft stance by the FED on the U.S. expected inflation. The downward trend intensified at the end of the week on Italy’s proposed budget and weaker EU inflation data. Nonetheless, the U.S., Germany, and Japan’s 10 year yields closed the week unchanged at 3.06%, 0.46%, and 0.12%, respectively.

DOWNLOAD THE NEWSLETTER